Blowing Up the Euro

By:  Bob Adelmann
01/03/2012
       
Blowing Up the Euro

In her article on Monday, financial journalist Jessica Mortimer said that the euro had just set a new record low against the Japanese yen: Its value is now the lowest it’s been in 10 years. The irony wasn’t lost on her as she also noted that it was just 10 years ago that the euro was first denominated in coins and currency, three years after being introduced electronically among the member states.

And she sees further weakness in the euro, now trading below $1.30 versus the dollar, and likely to move ever lower into the New Year: “In the absence of a comprehensive European policy response to the debt crisis, the euro could test its 2010 low of $1.18.” This would imply at least another nine-percent loss in value in less than a year.

She touched on only one of the few remaining options open to keep the euro from blowing up altogether: more austerity on the backs of the citizens of the member states who took excessive advantage of lower-than-market interest rates to load up on debt that they can't pay back. She noted the survey that came out over the weekend indicating that a key European manufacturing index remains persistently below recovery levels, with further declines into a full-blown recession in Europe likely. Additional austerity measures would simply hasten that recession. Kathleen Brooks, director of research at FOREX.com, told her clients: “We remain a sell on rallies (with the euro) as we tend to think the euro zone crisis will actually get worse before it gets better.”

In her article on Monday, financial journalist Jessica Mortimer said that the euro had just set a new record low against the Japanese yen: Its value is now the lowest it’s been in 10 years. The irony wasn’t lost on her as she also noted that it was just 10 years ago that the euro was first denominated in coins and currency, three years after being introduced electronically among the member states.

And she sees further weakness in the euro, now trading below $1.30 versus the dollar, and likely to move ever lower into the New Year: “In the absence of a comprehensive European policy response to the debt crisis, the euro could test its 2010 low of $1.18.” This would imply at least another nine-percent loss in value in less than a year.

She touched on only one of the few remaining options open to keep the euro from blowing up altogether: more austerity on the backs of the citizens of the member states who took excessive advantage of lower-than-market interest rates to load up on debt that they can't pay back. She noted the survey that came out over the weekend indicating that a key European manufacturing index remains persistently below recovery levels, with further declines into a full-blown recession in Europe likely. Additional austerity measures would simply hasten that recession. Kathleen Brooks, director of research at FOREX.com, told her clients: “We remain a sell on rallies (with the euro) as we tend to think the euro zone crisis will actually get worse before it gets better.”

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