Harvard Senior Fellow: Peak Oil Is History

By:  Bob Adelmann
07/03/2012
       
Harvard Senior Fellow: Peak Oil Is History

International energy economist Leonardo Maugeri says that technology and new discoveries will increase crude oil production in the United States by 50 percent by 2020, discrediting the theory of "peak oil."

With the publication of his careful study, Oil: The Next Revolution,” internationally respected economist and senior fellow at Harvard University Leonardo Maugeri has persuasively buried the theory of “peak oil” beneath 75 pages of evidence to the contrary. He wrote:

Contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is growing worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might outpace consumption. This could lead to a glut of overproduction and a steep dip in oil prices….

After adjusting for risk factors … net additional production capacity by 2020 could be 17.6 mbd [million barrels per day], yielding a world oil production of 110.6 mbd by that date….

This would represent the most significant increase in any decade since the 1980s.

At present total world production of oil is estimated at 73 mbd, and so if Maugeri is correct, that 110 mbd production will be 50 percent higher than today. That will confirm Maugeri’s prediction this “could be a paradigm-shifter for the oil world.”

Mauderi’s credentials are impressive. For 10 years he was the senior economic advisor to Italy’s largest industrial company, Eni S.p.A. (originally known as Ente Nazionale Indocarburi), which is a multinational oil and gas company, and managed a turnaround in its fortunes from 2000 to 2005 when the company increased its production by 60 percent. That earned him a promotion to senior executive vice president of strategies and development. He successfully called the top in crude oil prices in 2008, when oil was selling at $145 a barrel, and in March, 2012, when he was putting the finishing touches on the present study, he wrote:

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