Writer Bruno Waterfield’s claim that Germany has drawn up plans to deal with the inevitable Greek default was published in the British newspaper The Telegraph a little after 8 p.m. Saturday night. Within hours his claim was confirmed separately by blogger John Ward with times, dates, and consequences all spelled out by those drawing up the plans.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble has increasingly voiced his opinion that the economic implosion taking place in Greece would result in its bankruptcy despite official protestations to the contrary from German Chancellor Angela Merkel. One official close to Schauble said, “He just thinks the Greeks cannot do what needs to be done. And even if by some miracle they did what has been promised, he ... [is] convinced it will not pull Greece out of the hole.”
Schauble’s opinion gained increasing credence by a report issued last week by the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (EC, ECB, and IMF — the “troika”). According to their report, even if Greece were successful in accomplishing all that it has promised in order to secure the next round of financing, it will still fall far short of bringing down its debt load to manageable levels. Waterfield went on to say that Schauble, behind the scenes, is pushing Greece to declare itself bankrupt and demand a 70 percent “haircut” from the banks holding the bulk of its debt.
The timetable is pushing events inexorably forward: Greece must receive the next round of financing in order to pay debt service of $20 billion on March 20. Without it the debt will default and government checks will start bouncing. But it will take at least four weeks to get a formal agreement on the haircut, which puts it just days before March 20. A eurozone diplomat explained: “The private sector involvement takes at least four weeks to issue the prospectus and to get subscribers, and without an [immediate] deal then time will run out in March.”
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Photo: Greek Parliament building