"For Ron Paul to run as an independent," Fox News Channel's Juan Williams wrote back on November 4, "could be the biggest, most consequential third party candidacy in American history. Yes, one that is even bigger than Ross Perot’s candidacy was in the 90s."
Persistent talk about a Ron Paul third party candidacy by some may be an attempt to sabotage Dr. Paul's GOP candidacy and enable establishment candidates who support banking bailouts and irresponsible foreign military intervention to win the nomination. Paul has stated he won't run an independent race for the presidency. But serious analysis of the 2012 presidential race indicates that a major independent challenge is all but certain this year without an anti-bailout candidate such as Paul winning the GOP nomination.
Indeed, a significant third party candidacy need not be headlined by Ron Paul. Plenty of third party candidate possibilities dot the political horizon, each of whom could draw 5-15 percent of the popular vote (or more) and a significant percentage of conservative and independent voters. More on those possible candidates later. But first, let's outline a few basic facts about the 2012 presidential election.
Electoral Fact #1: Obama can't win 50 percent of the vote in 2012.
Presidents can't spend a dime under the U.S. Constitution, but they inevitably get the blame or credit for the economy at the polls. Although only Congress can spend money under the U.S. Constitution, Obama mostly got his way with Congress during the financial crisis. Obama backed the Bush TARP bailout that Congress passed just before he took office. While in office, Congress passed his "Stimulus" bill, "Cash for Clunkers," Dodd-Frank financial regulatory program, and his health care overhaul.
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Ron Paul (photo)